Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Week 5 Bang For Your Buck Power Rankings

Courtesy of Sam DeBaltzo
As you guys know, I’m sort of obsessed with turning fantasy into statistical analysis. Well, for this week’s power rankings I decided to do them based on Draft Value. This means I have organized every player into the order they were drafted (by position), and subtracted their current position rank by their position draft order.
For example, the Cardinals were the 8th Defense drafted, and their current position rank is 3, giving them a draft value of 5. Conversely, The Jets were the 14th Defense drafted, and their current position rank is 21, giving them a draft value of -7. See attached spreadsheet.

Now, I know that people have dropped players, and I considered negating the draft value of dropped players. However, I wanted to analyze draft success, so the power rankings are based on that.*
Put simply, I’m getting at how much bang for your buck each team got in the draft.
*However, for anyone’s enjoyment, I did rank the teams by draft value if you count dropped players. In those rankings, the dropped players’ draft values were removed from the Team Draft Value, and the added players’ draft values were added to the Team Draft Value (each undrafted player was considered drafted 1 after the total number of players at that position drafted. For example, 70 wide receivers were drafted so any undrafted player is considered to have been drafted 71st). As you can see, those bring many of the Team Draft Value (entitled Current Value) into the positives and shakes up the rankings.

            With no further ado, I give you this week’s Bang For Your Buck Power Rankings:

12. Duke Nuke 'Em
Team Draft Value: -272
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Latavius Murray, 19 (Draft Position: 20), Theo Riddick, 19 (Draft Position: 42)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Bruce Ellington, -85 (Draft Position: 55).
            At a 2-2 record, Duke Nuke ‘Em isn’t feeling too bad. However, the team definitely paid the most in terms of draft picks. Only 3 of Duke’s players had a draft value higher than zero, and Duke’s lower round picks were all busts, as Duke drafted the 55th, 60th, and 65th Wide Receivers who have an average draft value of -55.33. Duke has dropped Ellington, the biggest bust (which admittedly was assisted by injury), and has dropped two other players, which has brought Duke’s Current Value to being ranked 9th in the league. With some more pickups, or possibly some surprises from these wide receivers, Duke could quickly turn this around.

11. HGH You Feel So Good
Team Draft Value: -225
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Will Fuller V, 45 (Draft Position: 52)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Josh Gordon, -104 (Draft Position: 36)
            Although HGH got one of the best values in the draft, drafting Will Fuller as the 52nd Wide Receiver in the draft, the HUGE mistake of picking up Josh Gordon really hurt his draft value. Everyone knew he’d be out at some point because, let’s be honest, homeboy should’ve starred in Pineapple Express. HGH is also 0-4 this season, correlation?!?

10. Brady Gaga
Team Draft Value: -206
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Isaiah Crowll, 36 (Draft Position: 40)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Kamar Aiken, -79 (Draft Position: 51)
            Brady Gaga didn’t seem to make any huge mistakes, other than naming her team after a player she doesn’t have. Kamar Aiken was a bust, but the bigger bust appears to be Thomas Rawls, who Gaga drafted relatively high but was just lost due to injury. However, with a 3-1 record, I’m sure Gaga will just ignore these rankings J.

9. The Ezek-a Virus
Team Draft Value: -195
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Emmanuel Sanders, 17 (Draft Position: 27)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Randall Cobb, -60 (Draft Position: 21)
            Zeke is another squad that didn’t seem to make any huge mistakes, but also didn’t really have any success in high draft value players. Sanders has a value of 17, but beyond him Zeke’s players either hover around 0 or in the -30s. Perhaps Zeke would have a higher team value if he had taken more risks on draft day, as the only players he drafted late in their respective positions were Paul Perkins and Andy Dalton, neither being a major bust or success. In the future, take some risks mate, you gotta have faith.

8. Team DeBaltzo
Team Draft Value: -170
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Terrelle Pryor, 54 (Draft Position: 69)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Donte Moncrief, -59 (Draft Position: 25)
            I love team DeBaltzo for a multitude of non-football reasons, but my favorite thing about the squad is that they took my absolute favorite draft pick. Terrelle Pryor was drafted late and has been nothing but a success. As a faithful Cleveland fan, I can humbly admit that they are so good at losing that it’s almost a talent. However, Pryor has been such a highlight, he even showed up Redskins’ great Josh Norman. Apart from Pryor, Terrance West was an amazing pickup as the 57th RB drafted (with a draft value of 33). Other than those two, however, the draft didn’t work out as hoped for for DeBaltzo, as the only other player with a positive draft value is Ryan Mathews at 3. DeBaltzo hasn’t made any free agent pickups yet, so that could be key to improving her 12th place current value.

7. Mo' Manning Mo' Problems
Team Draft Value: -169
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Sammie Coates, 16 (Draft Position: 61)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Adrian Peterson, -79 (Draft Position: 1)
            I almost feel bad that Manning is this low, because no one predicted AP to be one of the running backs injured this year. Having your first pick be your biggest bust is going to hurt, but Manning can recover. In fact, Manning has already replaced 6 of his draft picks, giving him the highest current value at 104. Way to take lemons and make lemonade. Now we just hope that can improve the 1-3 record.

6. Vontae Mack No Matter What
Team Draft Value: -140
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Tyrell Williams, 34 (Draft Position: 68)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Sammy Watkins, -91 (Draft Position: 12).
            As with many of the teams, Vontae Mack’s biggest bust was a result of an injury to a high draft pick. Mack’s biggest success, however, was his last pick of the draft Tyrell Williams. Injuries to Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates have clearly benefitted Williams, but with Allen out the rest of the season, this could be Williams’ year to get a lot of targets from Phil Rivers. As for the rest of the team, the return of Tyler Eifert and Antonio gates should both have a significant of Mack’s Team Draft Value in coming weeks.

5. Knee High Gronk Socks
Team Draft Value: -97
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Michael Crabtree, 33 (Draft Position: 38)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Jamaal Charles, -95 (Draft Position: 8)
            Out for the beginning of the season, it is no surprise that Jamaal Charles is Knee High’s least valuable pick of the draft. He only had two carries for 7 yards last week against Pittsburgh, but Knee High should be prepared for a righteous comeback. More of a surprise was the team’s namesake, Mr. Rob Gronkowski, being injured in the beginning of the season. However, just like Charles, Gronk should be back and has best quarterback in the league* throwing to him starting this week. With Knee High’s two worst draft value players coming off injuries, Knee High is likely to have the highest team draft value by the end of the season.
*Because Peyton’s gone, Tyler.

4. Ebron Two Step
Team Draft Value: -91
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Chris Ivory, 27 (Draft Position 35)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Keenan Allen, -90 (Draft Position: 13)
E2S amazes me because of the quantity of players with a draft value above 0 (10). That is the highest number of positive draft values and has been crucial to E2S’s 1st place standing in the East. However, I expect this to plummet as E2S has had the most injured draft picks this season, as Corey Coleman, Keenan Allen, Shane Vereen, and Danny Woodhead are all injured. Allen was the only player of these drafted in the first 6 rounds, but injuries will still hurt. Both Vereen and Coleman currently have positive draft values, and both should go negative soon as Coleman is out for 4-6 weeks and Vereen may only possibly return by season end. Let’s see if E2S can overcome these injuries like the Vikings and be a fantasy championship contender.

3. Will You Teach Me to Football
Team Draft Value: -88
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Steve Smith Sr., 26 (Draft Position: 53)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Dez Bryant, -51 (Draft Position: -51)
            Of course a team whose own name admits their naivety has one of the most successful drafts. Isn’t it Ironic? I don’t have much to say here, Cre Cre did a good job. There were no major successes, but with a Dez Bryant injury (we think?!?) being your only high-pick bust, that’s not a bad start to the season.

2. Goodell’s Third Reich
Team Draft Value: -63
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Willie Snead, 20 (Draft Position: 43)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Tevin Coleman, -60 (Draft Position: 43)
            Second in number of players with a positive draft value only to E2S, GTR is an amazing squad. More importantly, the team name makes me happy. Because of this, and this, and this, and this. I’m sorry, what was I doing here again?

1. Team Who’s Ur Daddy?
Team Draft Value: -33
Most Valuable Draft Pick: Mike Wallace, 41 (Draft Position: 58)
Least Valuable Draft Pick: Jonathan Stewart, -62 (Draft Position: 13)

            Well Done. Who’s Ur Daddy had four players with a draft value over 26. More importantly, those players were Spencer Ware (52nd RB drafted), Marvin Jones (33rd WR drafted), Kenny Stills (57th WR drafted), and Mike Wallace (58th WR drafted). As another comparison, every player drafted in the 11th Round or later by Who’s Ur Daddy had a draft value greater than or equal to zero. Late picks is where you make or break in fantasy, and despite Who’s Ur Daddy’s current 1-3 record, I think this will be a good season. More importantly, even if Cam Newton gets 5,000 concussions this season, Tom Brady is back. The end.


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