Monday, October 21, 2019

Post-Draft NBA Fantasy Predictions

Courtesy of J. Tyler Cook

                Hello all, and welcome back to fantasy basketball. First I’d love to extend a warm welcome to our old pal Jake who is back in the league after a brief hiatus. You may know Jake as the guy you don’t want your girlfriend/wife to hang out with too long because he’s low key kinda hot (weird?) but his looks won’t matter in regards to what truly is important, fantasy sports.

                As you may know, I am one of the worst fantasy basketball players on the planet. However, THIS IS MY YEAR. That being said every year I do a power ranking on teams based off how I think they’d fare and be in real life (which really is a pointless thought exercise I do to make the work day go by faster). With that being said, I present to you the power rankings and nine man rotations of each fantasy team and decide who would be champion.

12. Sean Rockwood -

Strength – Youth/Athleticism – This team would have to be a push in transition team. Lonzo is the ultimate team player and Zion/Beal duo could make this team tough. Russell is a solid shooter/passer combo and they have some intriguing players off the bench. Could have an intriguing Russell-Beal-Bogdonovic-Sabonis/Saric-Zion lineup if they wanted to improve spacing.

Weakness – Shooting – Russell and Beal can shoot, but Lonzo, Harrell and Zion makes spacing tough. That paint would be extra crowded and Beal is not an elite enough player to overcome the rest of the teams flaws. What the backcourt makes up for in shooting, it also lacks in defensive prowess. Ultimately these weaknesses get exposed on a twelve team league.

11. Creighton Hardy –
Strength – Guard play – Steph is the best shooter of all time and opens up the game perhaps more than any other player. Marc Gasol is a winner and a champion, Westbrook can be a force, and Oubre and Collins are young ascending players who can play fast and stretch the floor. This team is a good combination of youth/athleticism and established all-stars/winners.

Weakness – Versatility – They don’t really have guys who can switch up roles and switch defensively. Steph/Russ is a small backcourt, Oubre is the only wing I trust, and Terry Rozier will think he is the best player on the team. The shooting outside of Steph is adequate but nothing to write home about. Unless Steph goes supernova I don’t think they’d compete.

10. Corry Smith –

Strength – Giannis/Size – I mean this team is massive make no mistake. Giannis is the best player in the NBA and this front court would be formidable (Giannis, Horford, Ayton and Adams? Yikes). The team is also experienced and full of vets. If Hayward comes back he would be a great complement to Giannis and could even run the teams second unit.

Weakness – Shooting/Backcourt. With Giannis, you need to surround him with shooters and maybe one secondary scorer. Horford can shoot and defend which is why he is starting, but Teague and Derozan are non-threats behind the three point line and even Hayward has had his troubles there. The bench is also weak outside Ayton/Adams and you can’t play that many bigs on a real life team and be successful. Love the frontcourt, but the backcourt ends up killing this team and does not make a great fit with Giannis running the show.

9. Sam DeBaltzo –

Strength – Shooting around Lebron – I mean this team could score 130 points on any given night. Lebron running things with Trae, Mccollum, Lauri and Vucevic (decent shot out to 20 feet) surrounding him? That would be tough to stop. The team is also young and ascending and could make some intriguing lineups with SGA and Bam in for Trae and Vuc.

Weakness – Defense – Yes they could score 130, but they might give up 150. Trae Young is the worst defender in the league, Lebron mails it in and is a communist, Lauri and Vuc are white. This team isn’t stopping anybody. For all the love of Trae’s shooting, he actually shot under 37% from three in college and in the pros (in part due to the difficulty of the shot). This defense is just so bad I can’t rank them any higher, Emperor James and all.

8. Austin Jones –
Strengths – Length/Well Rounded – Everyone on this starting lineup in theory can shoot, defend, and score adequately (Towns maybe less on the defense). This team would be long on the wing, then a Paul/Towns pick and roll would be tough to stop. Jamaal and Kuzma and Randle all scream bench scorers so that would be interesting to watch, but this team has a bunch of solid players.

Weaknesses – Go-to scorer – Towns is obviously the biggest candidate here but like most bigs when it matters it’s tough to give him the ball and say go get us a bucket. Instead he’s more of a pick and pop or pick and roll guy who is extremely skilled. I like the wings, but am not overly excited about any of them individually. This team is super solid top to bottom, but outside Towns I just don’t see the super top end talent.

7. Tyler Cook –
Strengths – Wings – Today’s NBA is all about wing play, and with Booker/Butler/Tatum/Lavine/Gordon/Grant I have six players over 6’6 that I feel like are versatile. Jimmy is obviously the alpha on this team, with Booker and Tatum providing secondary scoring and Drummond gobbling up the boards. Derrick White is extremely underrated and is good enough to defend and initiate the offense, with Zach Lavine as the sixth man off the bench getting me more buckets when necessary. Gordon is a perfect 3-4 if I need more defense, and Bagley/Grant are perfect if I need to go small at center.

Weaknesses – Passing – I don’t think Tatum and Jimmy are selfish players, but that doesn’t mean they are playmakers either. Booker is score first though he did quietly average 6 assists a game, and Lavine is a bucket getter. Most of these guys are iso-scorers and I need someone who can get a bucket but also create for others. White/Drummond don’t need the ball, but someone has to initiate the offense and I’m not sure I have it.

6. Jake Gillespie –
Strengths – Scoring/Heat Check guys – Kyrie, Harden, Love and Lou Williams are score first and score second options. Galinari is also a valuable scorer, and Capela is a good, switchable big to help. This team has guys who can get in the paint and shoot and there should be plenty of space to do work.

Weakness – Selfishness/Defense – Kyrie is a cancer, James Harden is the highest usage player in NBA history, Lou Williams is a score first and score second option. Galinari and Love are solid players but offer little defensively and will probably be relegated to shooters only. Nobody outside Capela defends. If Kyrie/Harden are hot they’ll have to outscore teams to win but I just don’t see this lineup gelling from a chemistry standpoint.

5. Dustin Jensen –
Strength – Youth/Athleticism/Defense – Man is this team fun. Excluding Porter who is no slouch, every single one of these players are fast, strong, physical freaks and have enough skill on the perimeter. These guys are good team players, defend, and would be impossible to stop in transition. Dustin’s 1-4 can all shoot adequately to exception (Porter) and this is no doubt the best defensive team in the league that extends to the bench. Terrance Ross is a great microwave scorer in case the offense turns sluggish, and the team is versatile/switchy. Speed, speed, speed.

Weakness – Crunch time scorer – Who gets the ball when it matters most? None of these guys are guys I’d rely on to get me a bucket when it matters.  I also feel like this team would struggle to score in the half court, as their athleticism/skill level is not quite there yet. If Dustin had one go-to alpha bucket getter this team would rank higher.

4. Jordan Heeb –
Strength – Competitiveness – Lillard, Mitchell, Embiid and Blake are all guys who play the game to win. They care, they are talented, and they are gamers. I feel like they’d have solid chemistry in real life, and the Lillard/Mitchell backcourt would be tough to stop. Blake has become a perimeter scorer who is one of the better passing bigs in the league and guys like Ingram, Millsap, Reddick bring different strengths off the bench. A Lillard/Embiid pick and roll combo would be unstoppable.

Weaknesses – Backcourt Defense – Lillard and Bogdonavic aren’t exactly DPOY candidates. Mitchell has the potential but hasn’t really been a great defender in his career. The defense all depends on the frontcourt, but when we get to this point in the rankings every weakness matters. Any team with solid wings could beat up on this backcourt relentlessly. Embiid can erase a lot of mistakes, but not sure if he can do it all with this squad.

3. Dane Jacobsen –
Strengths – Spacing – Stash Aldridge in the corner to shoot threes, Hield and Ingles are two of the best shooters in the game who would know their roles, and Jrue and AD have history playing together. I like the fit of this team and excluding Hield every starter doubles as a good to better defender. Ibaka and Aldridge could be swapped if we need more scoring on the second unit, Lowry is a winner/game and could start for Hield as well. This team has good players but there is a clear pecking order with AD/Jrue as the primary ball handlers/scorers and everyone else could buy into their new roles.

Weakness – Wing Defense – Once again we see a team with Ingles as the only real wing defender. Jrue is one of the best defenders in the league so maybe he could pick up some slack (he did guard Durant primarily in their playoff matchup) but that presents it’s own mismatch. I’d also add crunch time scoring here, as none of these guys are players you can ask to go get you a bucket when it matters most.

2. Alec Rockwood –
Strengths – Size/Versatility/Unselfishness – This team would be a blast to watch and has a ton of different strengths. First, no starter is under 6’6 with Brogdon being able to chase other point guards around. Simmons as the primary creator, Doncic/Brogdon/Porzingis/Jackson can all shoot the ball around him and even Draymond has his moments. This team is easily the highest basketball IQ team on this list. Murray and Harris exist if a small guard starts burning their defense, Draymond/Jackson is a nasty frontcourt and Simmons/Doncic/Draymond are three of the best passers for their position in the league. Doncic can get a bucket when the team needs one as his step back is always an option. This team would switch on everyone and lock people down. They would also be the most unselfish team in the league.

Weakness – Simmons shooting – I mean we see this in real life but if Simmons doesn’t have the ball he is useless. If Doncic is running the show Simmons/Draymond would kill spacing if they aren’t screening for him. It’s nitpicky, but that’s why Alec’s team is rated so highly. This can easily be remedied by staggering minutes but in crunch time I’d rather have Doncic running the offense but Simmons only hurts the team if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.

1 Taylor Call –
Strengths – Wing Defense – First off I mean holy crap. Taylor’s team would be the best in the league by a long shot, it isn’t even close. Kawhi, George, Covington and Smart are all guys who are on all NBA defensive teams, Conley and Jokic are the perfect team players, and Kemba would be the perfect sixth man scorer off the bench. If you want to go full defense, put in Myles for Jokic and throttle teams. If you want to score 150, put in Kemba for Covington and score at will. This team is full of guys who are straight competitors who want to win and all are established players in the league. George, Conley and Covington would become 3 & D guys with the offense running through Jokic and Kawhi. This team would be unstoppable and has no weaknesses.

Weakness – Who does offense run through, Jokic or Kawhi? - But if I had to give it one, who does the offense run through? I feel like it’s a waste of either Jokic/Kawhi’s talents to not have the offense go through them but I’m sure they’d make it work. Maybe run it through Jokic and let Kawhi do his thing late in game?